Apple may not experience the same success in 2024 that saw it surpass Samsung to become the largest smartphone maker in 2023. One analyst estimates that the Cupertino giant will face several challenges, including the lack of compelling upgrades in the iPhone 16, causing the company’s annual shipments to decline by up to 15 percent.
Analyst predicts that Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments to 200 million units, marking a 15 percent year-over-year decline
Out of the several phone makers, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple will suffer the most significant decline this year. His latest supply chain survey estimates that overall shipments will reach just 200 million units, suggesting that the iPhone 16 series may not replicate the same success as the iPhone 15 from 2023.
“My latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units (down 15% YoY). Apple may have the most significant decline among the major global mobile phone brands in 2024.”
Kuo also notes that the lack of a significant design change and the continued decline in shipments in China will add to Apple’s suffering. Barclays analysts also believe that the iPhone 16 will not sport any significant features that will have customers flocking over to switch to the latest and greatest models, but it can still mean that the iPhone 15 can grow in popularity as the launch of the newer models can result in a price drop.
“The iPhone faces structural challenges that will lead to a significant decline in shipments in 2024, including the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market.”
Additionally, Apple has yet to embrace the generative AI hype, and though its iPhone 16 will arrive with some changes, such as microphone upgrades that will make summoning Siri easier for advanced AI features, the Cupertino giant might not be taking this category seriously enough like the other manufacturers. Regardless, Apple has a ChatGPT competitor in the works dubbed ‘Apple GPT,’ which might be unveiled during WWDC 2024, so that announcement alone might change potential customers’ perception of the iPhone 16.
Regardless, there are still several months remaining for Apple’s September announcements. By then, Kuo’s and other analysts’ consensus might be vastly different from their current estimations, so we recommend readers not jump to conclusions immediately.
News Source: Ming-Chi Kuo
About the author: Omar Sohail is a reporter and analyst for Wccftech's mobile section, specializing in the technology and business of the mobile industry. His expertise lies in the intricate hardware supply chain, covering developments in semiconductor manufacturing, chip lithography, and camera sensor technology.
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