The single most important earnings announcement of the just-concluded quarter is now at hand, with NVIDIA preparing to divulge its quarterly financial performance this afternoon. And, the options market is pricing in swoon-worthy moves as a result.
Depending on how you calculate it, the options market is currently expecting NVIDIA stock to move between $10.5 (based on the extrinsic values of at-the-money options) and $13.05 (based on the bid prices of at-the-money call and put options) by Friday.
Since each $4 move in NVIDIA shares is roughly equal to Intel's entire market capitalization of around $100 billion, the options market is currently expecting NVIDIA stock to move between 2.6x and 3.26x Intel's market cap by this Friday!
Of course, as is usually the norm, the largest percentage move in NVIDIA stock is expected to materialize in the after-hours trading session today.
As far as NVIDIA earnings specifics are concerned, Wall Street is expecting the GPU giant to post a solid beat on consensus estimates, thanks to the production ramp-up of GB200 chips and the concurrent inauguration of GB300's production process.
As such, analysts expect NVIDIA to exceed its own revenue guidance of $45 billion for the just-concluded quarter, with the guidance for the October quarter likely to materialize within the $53 billion to $54 billion range, as per JPMorgan's estimates.
Interestingly, NVIDIA's revenue figure of $44 billion for its April-ending quarter included around $4.5 billion worth of H20 GPU sales. Given the current reigning uncertainty around the future of that chip in China, JPMorgan believes an appropriate quarter-on-quarter baseline revenue figure for NVIDIA should preclude H20 sales, resulting in a sequential upside of between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion if NVIDIA manages to exceed its own revenue guidance for the July-ending quarter.
Of course, the H20 GPU represents the biggest source of uncertainty this time around. NVIDIA's existing H20 inventory is worth around $1.9 billion and can yield ancillary revenue of between $5 billion and $6 billion if the entirety of its inventory is depleted via the sales channel.
JPMorgan calculates that every 100,000 units of NVIDIA H20 GPU that is sold in China yields $1 billion in revenue. Accordingly, NVIDIA can collect between $3 billion and $4 billion in additional revenue per quarter over 2 to 3 quarters.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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