With nearly all of its near-term bearish catalysts either completely vanquished or rendered catatonic, NVIDIA shares should have begun scaling an upward ramp into its August earnings by now, as per conventional wisdom. Yet, the stock is currently up a measly ~3.5 percent so far this year. Now, one analyst has openly mused on the tangential factors that might be keeping investors on the sidelines.
NVIDIA has now completely written off its China-origin TAM following the imposition of US licensing requirements on its country-specific H20 GPU, vowing to treat any residual sales in China as an undiscounted windfall instead of a solid figure factored into its guidance.
Even so, NVIDIA is likely to do quite well. For instance, as per a recent assessment by UBS (detailed here), NVIDIA currently has visibility into a whopping $1.5 trillion in data center revenue! This aligns with NVIDIA's own statement during its Q1'26 earnings call, where it declared that it had visibility into "tens of gigawatts" of AI infrastructure projects.
For its part, UBS performed a theoretical exercise, one that assumed a 20GW order pipeline and between $40 billion and $50 billion that NVIDIA has already stated it stands to gain for each GW of AI infrastructure. Assuming a realization timeline of between 2 and 3 years for these projects, this pipeline represents ~$400 billion per year in revenue for NVIDIA's AI-critical data center segment alone!
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Mizuho analyst, Jordan Klein, has now declared in a fresh note that he came away from his recent buyside meetings with clients with an "even more bullish" take on NVIDIA, particularly in relation to the stock's setup ahead of its next earnings in August.
According to Klein, the hedge funds based in Boston are "super bullish" on NVIDIA and "wondering what is keeping the stock from breaking out given all the newsflow sounds super good as of late."
Klein believes that some long-only (LO) funds as well as mutual funds are waiting for a bullish catalyst in the form of a big beat on consensus expectations along with a guidance raise. The Mizuho analyst predicts that NVIDIA will deliver this catalyst in August, forcing these institutions that are currently somewhat on the sidelines to then start chasing the stock.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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