Apple’s iPhone 18 Launch Cadence Change For 2026 Will Pull Down Shipments By 4.2 Percent

Apple is riding a wave of euphoria at the moment as the iPhone 17 lineup-driven sales momentum is poised to crown it as the apex predator among global smartphone OEMs. Yet, Apple's upcoming launch cadence change for the iPhone 18 is set to significantly handicap its budding momentum next year.

IDC: "Apple’s strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is forecast to pull-down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year"

The data analytics and research firm, International Data Corporation (IDC), has just penned an interesting report on the dynamics prevailing within the global smartphone sphere, noting:

1. Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 1.5 percent in 2025 to 1.25 billion units.
2. Apple's total iPhone shipments are expected to record a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 6.1 percent in 2025 to 247 million units vs. an annual growth of just 3.9 percent in 2024.
3. Apple "ranked first in October and November per IDC’s China Monthly Sales data with more than 20% share, miles ahead of the competition, leading IDC to revise Apple’s Q4 forecast in China from 9% to 17% YoY."
4. Accordingly, the Cupertino giant will end 2025 with an annual growth of around 3 percent in China, which constitutes a "phenomenal turnaround" relative to the previously projected 1 percent year-over-year decline in overall shipments for the year.
5. "This calendar year will not only be a record period for Apple in terms of shipments but also in value, which is forecast to exceed $261 billion, with 7.2% YoY growth in 2025." 

As far as 2026 is concerned, IDC notes:

1. Component shortage, especially of memory chips, will severely curtail global smartphone shipments in 2026.
2. Global smartphone shipments will decline by 0.9 percent year-over-year in 2026, which constitutes a substantial aggravation from a previous projection that had envisioned a growth of 1.2 percent.
3. "Apple’s strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from fall 2026 to early 2027 is forecast to pull-down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year."
4. Smartphone ASPs will increase to $465 in 2026, "propelling the market to its record high value of $578.9 billion."

Do note that Apple is reportedly changing the launch cadence of its iPhone lineup next year, delaying the base iPhone 18 variant from the fall of 2026 to the spring of 2027, all in a bid to reduce the strain on suppliers during the fall season.

Specifically, Apple is now expected to launch the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and the much-anticipated iPhone Fold in the fall of 2026. Then, come the spring of 2027, the Cupertino giant will launch the base iPhone 18, the iPhone 18e, and possibly the now-delayed iPhone Air 2. 

This comes as Counterpoint Research recently showed that Apple's iPhones constituted a quarter of all smartphones sold in China during October – a milestone that Apple managed to hit only once before, back in 2022.

The report also noted that smartphone sales in China rose by 8 percent year-over-year in October, largely driven by a 37 percent year-over-year surge in the sale of Apple's iPhones, with 80 percent of those sales concentrated in the new iPhone 17 lineup.

Also, another Counterpoint Research report - released towards the end of November - projected that, for the first time in over a decade, Apple will clinch the proverbial crown for the global smartphone market, leaving Samsung as the runner-up.

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