The media has devoted a lot of airtime in recent days to the supposedly anemic demand for the newly revealed iPhone 16 lineup. Even if such preliminary anecdotes do ultimately end up vindicated, Apple's annual launch cadence remains an intricate logistics exercise that would give an entire orchestra a run for its money.
To wit, FlightAware has now made available a dedicated page to track UPS flights carrying millions of iPhone handsets to the US ahead of the official launch of Apple's latest flagship series this Friday.
FlightAware has a page up tracking the UPS planes loaded with iPhones heading to the US for Friday’s launch.
Assuming roughly 300,000 iPhones fit a 747-8F, just one group planes near Alaska was hauling $2,330,200,000 ($2.3 billion) worth of iPhones this morning. pic.twitter.com/VcpDZV2gIc
— Sebastiaan de With (@sdw) September 18, 2024
Assuming a single 747-8F plane carries 300,000 units of the iPhone, netizens recently tracked 2.1 million handsets that were supposedly making their way to the continental US via a group of 7 UPS flights as they cruised over Alaska. Cumulatively, this group of planes is hauling iPhones worth around $2.3 billion, based on an estimated volume of 2.1 million units and an ASP of $1,095.
Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, there are signs that the AI-led upgrade supercycle that Apple had been banking on for the iPhone 16 lineup might not materialize.
First, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo recently flagged a 12 percent year-over-year decline in iPhone 16's first-weekend sales relative to what was recorded when iPhone 15 launched last year.
Next, analysts at Barclays, JP Morgan, and the Bank of America (BofA) have all recently warned about the relatively softer demand for the iPhone 16 lineup, particularly the Pro models.
Barclays recently noted:
"Based on our conversations with distributors and analysis of pre-order figures on major Chinese e-commerce sites, total pre-order units were down Y/Y within the first couple of days, with a lower pro model mix."
Of course, iPhone 16 sales in China have been impacted by the delayed rollout of Apple Intelligence features in Mandarin. These features will now only become available in 2025.
If the preliminary signs of a somewhat softer demand for the Pro models do end up morphing into a persistent trend, Apple's margins will face near-certain erosion. It is for this reason that analysts are likely to be particularly sensitive to this critical metric as Apple announces its next few quarterly earnings.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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