A few hours remain before the iPhone 16 lineup is officially announced, but just before the grand ‘It’s Glowtime’ event kicks off, an analyst provides some revised shipment figures for Apple’s upcoming flagship series. Various hardware upgrades and features will drive demand, so the company has reportedly prepared up to 17 million units to sate the pre-order wave. However, as you will soon find out, the next quarters do not sound like a positive outlook for Apple’s flagship series.
iPhone 16 family is said to suffer up to a 55 percent shipment decline in Q1 2025, largely due to seasonality
On his Medium blog post, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the iPhone 16 shipments estimate has increased to 88-89 million units, which is slightly lower than the 91 million units of the iPhone 15. This figure is different from the one reported by Nikkei Asia, stating that Apple has ordered its supply chain to mass produce a 10 percent higher volume of iPhone 16 units. Demand will be driven by the standard version and the ‘Pro’ models.
The base model is said to account for 26 percent of total shipments, with the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max accounting for an impressive 30 percent and 38 percent of total volume. The iPhone 16 Plus will likely be the least in demand, as Kuo reports it will account for a minuscule 6 percent. The pre-order period will be a ‘crunch’ time for Apple, which is why the California-based giant has been estimated to have prepared between 15-17 million iPhone 16 pre-order units to keep up with the booming demand.
Unfortunately, this surge will be short-lived, as Kuo notes that in Q4 2024, iPhone 16 shipments are projected to reach around 63 million units, marking up to a 7 percent year-over-year decline compared to the Q4 2023 period. In Q1 2025, demand for the iPhone 16 will taper off significantly, declining by up to 55 percent quarter-over-quarter. Kuo believes that the reasons for this decline are seasonality and the introduction of the low-cost iPhone SE 4, which was previously reported to support Apple Intelligence thanks to its RAM upgrade and A18 chipset.
Based on Kuo’s predictions, the iPhone 16 lineup will not usher a supercycle, which is something that Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman also pointed out, but he does pin his hopes on the iPhone 17 range becoming a massive hit with customers next year.
News Source: Ming-Chi Kuo
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