While Apple is not expected to debut iPhone Fold until well into next year, the chatter around the new form factor has already reached deafening levels, prompting one Wall Street analyst after another to chime in.
Today, Jefferies analyst Edison Lee has penned an interesting note on the topic, adopting a decidedly somber tone regarding Apple's much-anticipated foldable iPhone.
Quick Take
- What Changed - Jefferies analyst has slightly increased his FY 2025 and FY 2026 estimates for iPhone sales, while reducing his expectations for FY 2027, largely due to the muted projected demand for iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and the upcoming foldable iPhone; the analyst asserts that the demand boost for base iPhone 17 from an implied price cut is already priced in.
- Why it matters - Apple's near-term outlook remains robust, thanks to the rip-roaring demand for the base iPhone 17; though this period of sunshine is unlikely to last.
The Demand Boost From The Base iPhone 17 Already Priced In
The analyst's view: "Better demand for iPhone 17, partly due to a price cut on the base model, is already in the price."
Context: The base iPhone 17 has received a $100 implied price cut this time around, courtesy of its amped-up base storage to 256 GB, while maintaining the retail price of the base iPhone 16 (128 GB).
Apple's Foldable iPhone Will Likely Fail To Meet The Current Lofty Expectations
The analyst's view: "[The better performance of the base iPhone 17] has led to excessive expectations on 18 Fold;" expects sales of just 12.5 million units for the foldable iPhone coming out next year.
Context: Nikkei Asia recently reported that Apple is already planning a mass production cadence for its foldable iPhone, eyeing a sales volume of as much as 95 million units. Apple is reportedly targeting a 10 percent shipment growth for its smartphones in 2026, banking on incremental demand from its new foldable iPhone variant to achieve this feat.
Apple iPhone Shipment Volumes To Experience Growth In FY 2025 And FY 2026, Contraction In FY 2027
The analyst's view: "We raised our FY25E/26E/27E iPhone unit growth to 7%/1%/-1% from 5%/-3%/0%;" the analyst believes a $100 price increase for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will play an important role in moderating demand for these margin-critical smartphones.
Context: Apple shipped 232 million iPhones in 2024. Accordingly, the Jefferies analyst is currently predicting the following iPhone sales volumes:
- FY 2025: 248 million units
- FY 2026: 250 million
- FY 2027: 248 million
What We Don't Know
- The precise specifications of the foldable iPhone.
- Will Apple try to entice demand again via implied price cuts (bumping up base storage again)?
- Whether the current assumptions by the Jefferies analyst will hold for the next few months?
- Whether the much-hyped super upgrade cycle will arrive on schedule next year?
What's Next?
- Keep a tab on supply chain leaks to get an idea about Apple's demand calibration for the new foldable iPhone.
- Track iPhone 17 lead times to get an idea about demand resilience.
- Monitor analyst notes to get an idea about Wall Street's changing expectations.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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