Capitulation is widely considered a vital ingredient for exiting a bearish regime, characterized by extreme pessimism and destruction of speculative capital, which then paves the way for the influx of new capital at very attractive valuations. Now, as per a crucial indicator, Bitcoin appears to have entered its second capitulation window of 2022.
The Puell Multiple is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s daily issuance value, denominated in USD, by the 365-day moving average of this metric. A low reading suggests that the value of Bitcoin that is being mined and entering the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply is at a substantial discount relative to historical norms. As can be seen in the snippet above, the Puell Multiple for Bitcoin has been stuck in the green zone ever since June 2022, barring a few short-lived outshoots. This indicates that Bitcoin miners have been financially stressed ever since the start of the summer.
9/ Aggregate Bitcoin mining revenues have recently
declined to the lowest levels in 2 years and the hash rate has started to decline again. All this implies that current prices are below miners' break-even prices on average.— André Dragosch | Bitcoin & Macro ⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2022
In fact, the aggregate Bitcoin mining revenue has now declined to 2-year lows.
This stress, however, has now grown to an extreme level. Bitcoin’s hash rate measures the total computational power that has been deployed on the network. This invariably captures the mining activity that takes place vis-à-vis Bitcoin. The Hash Ribbon indicator suggests that miner capitulation has begun when the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate falls below its 60-day moving average. As is evident from the above snippet, the shorter timeframe moving average of Bitcoin’s hash rate has now fallen below its longer timeframe counterpart, indicating an increased level of financial stress on the cryptocurrency’s miners, who are going offline in order to save costs.
There it is. Hash Ribbon miner capitulation confirmed. Triggered by the $10B FTX fraud and subsequent collapse, Bitcoin miners are now going bust and Hash Rate is trending down. pic.twitter.com/TorX7PzrNu
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) November 28, 2022
Also note that each of Bitcoin’s major capitulatory windows, as indicated by the Hash Ribbon indicator, has been followed by a rise in the price. However, the early summer capitulatory window failed to produce this bullish price action, thereby suggesting that the capitulatory process remained incomplete. It is for this reason that a redux, as is the case now, bears a much more significant bullish implication.
When #BTC lost the ~$19500 level as support...
It broke down into the ~$13900-$19500 Monthly Range
Monthly Candle Close is coming up soon
A Monthly Close below ~$19500 would likely confirm the ~$13900-$19500 Range as its new playground$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/qnAdtsI3SY
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) November 28, 2022
Meanwhile, as Bitcoin miners capitulate, evidence for significant lows continues to increase, as indicated in the above tweet. Bitcoin typically records a retracement of around 80 percent relative to its preceding all-time high. It is for this reason that we continue to expect the world’s premier cryptocurrency to find its cyclical footing at a sub-$14,000 price level.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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