Tesla is again growing its deliveries, courtesy of the Cybertruck's accelerating production ramp-up and the EV giant's demand-stoking incentives that have effectively countered any dampening effect from the onslaught of new competition in China. This sets the stage for a sustainable rally in Tesla shares just ahead of its upcoming robotaxi reveal event on the 10th of October.
$TSLA IR-compiled 3Q consensus is 462K (+6% YoY) and FY’24 consensus is 1,781K (-1.5% YoY). @TroyTeslike 3Q est is 472K. pic.twitter.com/I0eMH6Ytf7
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 1, 2024
As per Tesla's IR-compiled consensus estimate, Wall Street analysts expected the EV giant to have delivered 461,978 units in Q3 2024, with Model 3/Y deliveries alone commanding a consensus estimate of 433,800 units.
Hi everyone. Here are my final Tesla production and delivery estimates for Q3, in a layout that's easy to compare to the actual numbers.
Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q3 2024:
• My estimate: 472,000
• Analyst consensus: 461,978For a more detailed update that includes VIN… pic.twitter.com/VE0mJNXTQo
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 30, 2024
Additionally, Troy Teslike, who is known for his accurate predictions of Tesla's quarterly deliveries, expected the EV giant to have delivered 472,000 units in the just-concluded quarter, which constitutes the biggest positive delta relative to the Wall Street's consensus expectations going back to 2021.
Tesla Delivers 462,890 Units In Q3 2024
Tesla's deliveries came in about 3.5% below my estimate. Deployments came in just 1.4% below my estimate.
1a. The item which stands out to me is the low 'Other Models' number which looks low given expected CT ramp. This suggests that CT ramp is slower than expected and/or S/X… pic.twitter.com/VIMzTExdpE
— AJ (@alojoh) October 2, 2024
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Just moments ago, Tesla disclosed that it delivered 462,890 units in Q3 2024 against a production level of 469,796 units. For the benefit of those who might not be aware, Tesla had delivered 443,956 units in the second quarter of the year against a production level of 410,831 units.
Tesla's Quarterly Deliveries
Under the hood, Tesla delivered 439,975 units of Model 3/Y, and 26,128 units of other models, including the Cybertruck.
At the end of Q2 2024, the company’s Days of Finished Goods Inventory (also known as global vehicle inventory days of supply) metric stood at 18, based on an inventory level of 106,549 units and an average daily delivery rate of 5,919.413 vehicles (assuming 75 working days in a quarter). For Q3 2024, Tesla’s Days of FG Inventory has increased to 18.38, based on a new inventory level of 113,455 units and an average daily delivery rate of 6,171.867 vehicles.
At the time of writing, Tesla shares are down 4 percent in pre-market trading. Year to date, the stock is largely flat.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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