Tesla shares have been rallying in recent weeks, spurred by the heightened prospects of a more benevolent regulatory environment in the autonomous driving arena as Elon Musk is widely expected to leverage his sizable heft within the incoming Trump administration 2.0 to influence policy in Tesla's favor. Concurrently, Musk has been hyping up the prospects for the EV giant's bespoke humanoid robot, dubbed Optimus. However, Tesla's core auto business is still contending with headwinds, albeit ones that are somewhat waning.
Tesla will report 24Q4 deliveries tomorrow, January 2nd at 3pm CET. Half an hour before the US market opens.
Deliveries are estimated to be between 498 and 510.4k. The IR-compiled analyst consensus is at 506,763. pic.twitter.com/XYulqyZvEV
— Roland Pircher (@piloly) January 1, 2025
Before delving into actual delivery numbers for Q4, do note that, as per Tesla's IR-compiled consensus estimate, Wall Street analysts expected the EV giant to have delivered 506,763 units in Q4 2024. On the other hand, as per Bloomberg's compilation of analysts' estimates, the consensus number is currently pegged at ~512,000 units.
Of course, while announcing its earnings for the third quarter of 2024 back in October, Tesla had stated that it expected to record a "slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024." As we then noted in a subsequent post, Tesla needed to deliver 516,344 units in Q4 2024 to match its 2023 delivery total of 1.81 million units.
Tesla Delivers 495,570 Units In Q4 2024
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Just moments ago, Tesla disclosed that it delivered 495,570 units in Q4 2024 against a production level of 459,445 units. For the benefit of those who might not be aware, Tesla had delivered 462,890 units in the third quarter of the year against a production level of 469,796 units.
Tesla's Quarterly Deliveries
Under the hood, Tesla delivered 471,930 units of Model 3/Y, and 23,640 units of other models, including the Cybertruck.
For the entire 2024, Tesla delivered 1,789,226 EVs, falling short of its stated guidance that it would exceed 2023's total deliveries of 1.81 million units.
At the end of Q3 2024, the company’s Days of Finished Goods Inventory (also known as global vehicle inventory days of supply) metric stood at 19, based on an inventory level of 113,455 units and an average daily delivery rate of 6171.867 vehicles (assuming 75 working days in a quarter). For Q4 2024, Tesla’s Days of FG Inventory metric has decreased to 11.70, based on a new inventory level of 77,330 units and an average daily delivery rate of 6,607.6 vehicles.
$TSLA -15% in two weeks vs NDX -4%. Nothing has fundamentally changed for $TSLA. This decline is mostly beta and other high P/E names have been hit disproportionately. The two key risks for TSLA are 1/ potential loss of the $7,500 EV credit, which hurts TSLA more than GM and… pic.twitter.com/8rosMyM24i
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 31, 2024
Looking ahead, the strength of Tesla's core auto business in 2025 will largely depend on the impact of the widely expected abrogation of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit as well as the reception of the much-anticipated Model Q hatchback.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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