That SpaceX retains vast cellular ambitions is no longer a secret. After all, the satellite giant has tried and failed to enter into a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) agreement with the so-called Big Three - AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile - that could have allowed it to deploy direct-to-device (D2D) satellite-based connectivity services with ease.
Yet, the FCC is now dangling 160 MHz of the prized upper C-band spectrum, which gives SpaceX the opportunity to further its D2D ambitions, while bidding up auction prices to limit the license uptake by AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
What is the upper C-band spectrum?
For the benefit of those who might not be aware, the upper C-band is a portion of the radio frequency spectrum that spans the 3.7 GHz - 4.2 GHz range.
Given its "sweet spot" propagation characteristics, the C-band offers wireless networks an optimal balance between the wide coverage of low-band frequencies and the high capacity of millimeter-wave frequencies.
Consequently, the lower C-band (3.7 GHz to 3.98GHz) is already widely used in mid-band 5G networks in the US, but does suffer from its limited ability to penetrate concrete.
Why is the FCC preparing to auction off the upper C-band now?
The One Big Beautiful Act mandated the FCC to auction off at least 100 MHz of the upper C-band by July 2027. Accordingly, the FCC is now holding a vote on July 22 to auction 160 MHz of this prized spectrum by next year. The FCC noted in its relevant press release:
"The FCC will vote on July 22 to hold an auction of 160 megahertz of spectrum in the Upper C-Band (3.98-4.14 GHz) next year. The rules would also effectively harmonize terrestrial wireless operations across the entire C-Band to create a single “super-band” spanning 440 megahertz (3.70-4.14 GHz). This sets America up to lead the world in next-gen connectivity."
Essentially, the FCC is aiming to create contiguous 440 MHz of blocks of spectrum in the C-band, unlocking massive bandwidth for 5G networks in the process.
Do note that the FCC conducted the biggest auction in its history when it sold spectrum licenses in the lower C-band a few years back, netting over $80 billion in proceeds. At the time, the FCC had forced satellite operators to vacate the lower band and move to the upper C-band. Now, however, the FCC is expected to offer satellite operators financial compensation as well as relocation incentives for either moving to the micro-slice at the very top of the C-band (4.16–4.2 GHz) or to transition to other bands entirely.
Why is the upper C-band auction so critical for SpaceX?
This brings us to the core of today's topic. We noted recently that SpaceX has limited terrestrial spectrum at its disposal right now, primarily made up of around 15 MHz of unpaired nationwide Advanced Wireless Services-3 or AWS-3 spectrum band, around 40 MHz of nationwide AWS-4 spectrum, and around 10 MHz of nationwide H-Block spectrum. Of these, only its tiny sliver of AWS-3 spectrum is actively supported by most existing cellphones.
What's more, without an MVNO with one of the Big Three carriers, SpaceX has no easy path to gaining access to the correct terrestrial spectrum in bulk quantities to power its planned D2D services.
It is precisely because of these hurdles that the upcoming upper C-band auction is so critical for SpaceX. Consider the fact that SpaceX currently owns just a little over 65 MHz of terrestrial spectrum. Yet, suddenly, it sees an opportunity to theoretically gobble up ~2.5x its current terrestrial spectrum, and that too the prime spectrum real estate and not just an outhouse in the middle of nowhere!
Of course, the auction won't be cheap. But, cash is not a problem for SpaceX right now, having raised $86 billion from its IPO, and another $25 billion from the bond market recently.
In all likelihood, SpaceX will manage to make significant inroads into the upper C-band. What's more, its participation is sure to bid up auction prices, which works to the detriment of AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. As such, SpaceX can take cold comfort in jacking up the prices for its competitors even when it fails to acquire a particular spectrum license. This is vindictiveness 101.
Interestingly, SpaceX appears to have used a recent AWS-3 auction as testing grounds of sorts for its strategy, having initially bid upon six licenses, but then walked away with just two, while ensuring that the winners paid a lot more for the residual four licenses that it gave up.
Now, all eyes turn to July 22 when the FCC votes to hold the upper C-band auction before July 2027, and SpaceX readies its Machiavellian strategy to extract the proverbial pound of flesh.
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