DRAM supply tightness is now expected to continue through 2028, according to one of the world’s largest memory makers.
SK Hynix's Internal Analysis Suggests a Constrained Commodity DRAM Supply Through 2028, Making it Difficult to Fulfill the Demand
The mainstream PC market is bracing for a prolonged memory supply-demand imbalance, which is reportedly going to exist throughout 2028. SK Hynix's internal analysis shows that the "commodity" DRAM will see limited growth and won't catch up to the demand. We already know how bad the DRAM prices are, but this situation appears to have gone out of hand, making it extremely difficult for the masses to get affordable PCs.
The user @BullsLab shared screenshots of what is reported to be an internal analysis by SK Hynix. It projects that, except for the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and SOCAMM modules, the growth for the commodity DRAM will remain constrained through at least 2028. This is because the major memory makers have already shifted their focus to fulfill the demands of AI servers, and the likelihood of seeing any noticeable growth in the production capacity for the consumer market remains low.
The existing supplier inventories are reported to have been drawn down to historically low levels, which is further intensifying allocation pressures. Reports show that memory makers such as SK Hynix have adopted conservative capacity expansion strategies, which focus more on maintaining profitability rather than flooding the market with new DRAM supply. The server DRAM demand has been growing almost exponentially, and it's expected that the growth will be sharper next year.
It's estimated that the server share will increase from 38% in 2025 to a whopping 53% by 2030. Due to the AI boom, there is a big surge in AI training data center buildouts across cloud providers, and this demand is expected to result in a DRAM super-cycle. Some reports also suggest that manufacturers have already sold out key DRAM production slots for 2026, while the traditional PC DRAM production is expected to fall short of demand for the next few years.
We have already seen a surge in the AI PC market share, and it's expected that the AI PC systems will account for around 55% of the total PC market in 2026. This is despite the overall PC shipments projected to be equivalent in 2025. Coming to the NAND memory, SK Hynix's analysis also reveals that the NAND supply growth may lag demand in the consumer market due to higher demand from the server side (and higher profits).
All in all, this analysis shows a really worrying trend for the consumer market. We previously expected it to last until 2027, but it doesn't seem to be stopping before 2028 ends.
An update from SK Hynix:
SK hynix is accelerating the timeline for its new fab developments, such as M15X and the Yongin fab, to proactively respond to the surging demand for AI memory and the evolving needs of its customers.
The M15X fab, which opened ahead of schedule at the end of this year, is currently preparing for mass production. In addition, the company is also accelerating the construction of its Yongin fab, which is scheduled for completion in the first half of 2027.
About the author: Sarfraz Khan is a hardware reporter with a focus on PC components and the builder community. With years of experience writing about PC hardware and laptops, his work has been featured on several reputable technology publications. Sarfraz's hands-on experience is demonstrated through his first-person accounts of using and comparing different hardware configurations, providing practical and relatable insights for everyday users. His technical analysis is respected by peers in the enthusiast community and has been cited by specialized hardware sites such as Germany's Igor's Lab.
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