80%
Probable
[UPDATE - July 2, 11:29 AM] While Jason Schreier could confirm that Obsidian is not being considered for closure, the known games journalist also revealed on the ResetERA forums that the studio is not working on a new Fallout project, although this could be changing soon with Xbox's new direction.
Original story follows.
[Original Story] Despite the smashing success of the Fallout TV show on Amazon, Xbox and Bethesda failed to capitalize on it with a new entry in the series. Although the studio headed by Todd Howard is unlikely to work on a new entry in the franchise until The Elder Scrolls VI is out on PC and consoles, another development studio, Obsidian Entertainment, is reportedly working on a Fallout project, and are reportedly safe from the upcoming restructuring, despite a fresh report suggesting they too were in Xbox's crosshairs.
"Xbox is looking to reallocate where it spends money. The company wants to invest in its big franchises, and to do that, it needs to cut from elsewhere. Studios such as Compulsion, Ninja Theory, Double Fine, Obsidian, Undead Labs and others are deep in negotiation with Microsoft to avoid closure," The Game Business Christopher Dring said today after speaking with "one of the most senior PR leaders in video games." This definitely came as a surprise, even without knowing what the studio was working on after Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2, as it has been one of the few Xbox-owned studios with a consistent release schedule this generation, and one of the few to have launched a successful live service franchise with Grounded.
However, this is reportedly not the case according to counter-reports. Reacting to the threat of shutdowns, VGC's Jordan Middler revealed on Bluesky that the studio is "early on a Fallout project," and work should still be ongoing, as Jason Schreier confirmed that "Obsidian is not in negotiations to avoid shutting down." Details still have to be defined, and more will come on the impending July 6 corporate deadline, but Xbox is not closing down the studio according to people familiar with the situation.
As for what this new Fallout project could be, no one can say. We have known for quite some time that Fallout 3 is getting remastered, and possibly even Fallout New Vegas, but it's unlikely Obsidian is involved in either, as they are reportedly early on this new project, and the two remasters likely aren't. All things considered, a sequel to the beloved Fallout: New Vegas would be the dream project for many fans and an excellent way to bring the series back after Fallout 4 and the MMO Fallout 76.
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