With memory prices having soared in the aftermath of the AI boom, market research firm TrendForce estimates that HBM memory prices should rise further in 2027. TrendForce based its estimates on per-wafer revenue, which shows that certain variants of DDR5 memory have become more profitable compared to HBM. With HBM expected to remain in demand in 2026 as NVIDIA and others launch their new AI GPUs, the research firm estimates that suppliers will continue to raise prices to create more pricing power for negotiations.
Contract Pricing Mechanism Has Prevented Memory Manufacturers From Matching Prices With Market, Says Research Firm
In its report, TrendForce cites memory contract and pricing dynamics to outline that manufacturers have not been able to adjust their prices according to market conditions. The firm explains that since memory contracts rely on annual prices, the rapid growth in memory prices has meant that manufacturers have been unable to increase their prices in line with market dynamics.
With the second quarter of 2026 well underway, the market research firm explains that memory chip manufacturers and buyers have now shifted towards HBM4 memory. These negotiations will lead to contracts for 2027, with TrendForce using industry metrics to claim that HBM profitability has dipped below certain DRAM modules.
Memory Manufacturers Will Use DRAM Tightness To Raise HBM Prices, Says Research Firm
As per the research firm, after it HBM and DRAM per-wafer revenue by "using die size, yield rates, and per-Gb pricing," it discovered that the revenue for HBM had dipped below the DDR5 64GB RDIMM modules in this year's first quarter. As a result, the firm adds that the RDIMM modules also became more profitable compared to their HBM counterparts.
The higher DRAM prices also provide the memory manufacturers with greater incentive to dictate HBM pricing terms in their negotiations, says TrendForce. In case their HBM prices are not accepted by the buyers, the memory manufacturers can simply allocate the tight production capacity to DRAM instead and benefit from the higher presence in the sector. Additionally, the subsequent tightness in the HBM market also leads to higher prices due to short supply and high demand.
TrendForce adds that while current AI infrastructure deployment will sustain high HBM demand through 2026 and 2027, the reasons behind the demand will differ during the year. It believes that in 2026, HBM demand will be driven by custom AI chips, while NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra platform will drive demand in the following year.
About the author: Ramish is a seasoned technology writer and editor with more than a decade of experience. He specializes in semiconductor fabrication and market analysis. With a background in finance and supply chain management - via his bachelors in Finance and a micromasters in supply chain management from MIT - Ramish combines financial rigor with deep industry insight to deliver accurate and authoritative coverage.
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