We noted at the start of May that Bitcoin was towing its 2016 analog almost tick for tick. Today, as that analog's so-called danger zone ends, the world's pre-eminent cryptocurrency is back on firmer footing again, helped by an overall risk-on mood that was precipitated by GameStop's frenzy-inducing gains.
Bitcoin's 2016 Analog And Institutional Interest
Bitcoin has repeated 2016 history perfectly, offering a downside wick below the bottom of its current Re-Accumulation range within a three-week window after the Halving$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/5GHCnZrmB1 pic.twitter.com/QauIFZtX9p
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 11, 2024
In what has been a near-perfect echo of its 2016 bullish cycle, Bitcoin plunged after undergoing its fourth halving on the 19th of April, when the reward for mining a block was cut in half to just 3.125 BTC in what is a regular four-year cycle.
Interestingly, while the 2016 cycle saw Bitcoin experiencing a ~40 percent pullback in the post-halving phase, this time around, the world's pre-eminent cryptocurrency posted much more muted losses, helped along by the spot Bitcoin ETFs' scarcity-inducing inflows.
📌Crypto hedge fund exposure
Global crypto hedge funds continued to increase their market exposure to #Bitcoin over the past 20 trading days.
1M beta of global crypto hedge funds to #Bitcoin is around 1.06, i.e. slightly above neutral exposure. pic.twitter.com/SWVgUfFvjS
— André Dragosch | Bitcoin & Macro ⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) May 13, 2024
According to the ETC Group's head of research, André Dragosch, global crypto-focused hedge funds have been net buyers of Bitcoin in the post-halving phase, as evidenced by the increase in their rolling 1-month beta to the cryptocurrency.
The new high water mark (ex APs/market makers) for bitcoin ETF holdings has arrived. Boston-based Bracebridge Capital has reported owning $262m of $ARKB. It's also the biggest owner of $IBIT too with $81m in that ETF. They also own $20m of $GBTC. They went wild basically. pic.twitter.com/RzdpwE2D0k
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 13, 2024
Additionally, now that the requisite Form 13-F filings - which disclose institutional holdings - for Q1 2024 have been aggregated, Boston-based Bracebridge Capital is currently leading the pack with the highest exposure to the spot Bitcoin ETFs. What's more, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) now has around 250 institutional holders, which is an insanely large number for a newly launched ETF.
The China Factor
Coins have been moving from West to East throughout this consolidation.
Asia is going to pump #Bitcoin in due time. Tick tock! pic.twitter.com/18g94EOcD5
— Bitcoin Munger (@bitcoinmunger) May 10, 2024
Meanwhile, in what might come as a surprise to most individuals, Bitcoin holdings have been gradually moving eastward. As we noted previously, this is a natural result of Chinese citizens trying to front-run a possible Yuan devaluation by moving some of their savings into Bitcoin.
JUST IN: 🇨🇳 🇭🇰 CEO of Hong Kong #Bitcoin ETF issuer, Harvest, wants to put the ETF on Stock Connect so mainland Chinese investors can buy it.
Would be HUGE! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/sMNJ2qSarz
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) May 9, 2024
Of course, the fiercest tailwind for the world's largest cryptocurrency will arrive if the CEO of Hong Exchange is able to connect mainland Chinese investors to the spot Bitcoin ETFs listed on the Hong Kong exchange via the "Stock Connect" route.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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