After wrestling with the relentless selling pressure from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), combined liquidations of around 60,000 BTC by the German and the US governments, distributions to Mt Gox creditors amounting to over 100,000 BTC, and additional distributions related to the collapse of Celsius, Gemini, and Genesis Trading, Bitcoin is still trading at a $64,000 price handle. And, as we approach the strongest month for Bitcoin, as per historical precedents, the chorus around new all-time highs is building up to a near-deafening crescendo.
Bitcoin Bulls Have Successfully Absorbed A Selling Pressure Of Around 1.2 Million BTC So Far This Year
$GBTC is now down 64% from its peak, it is largely now just used as a trading vehicle, AUM sits at 14.5B, half off its peak of $28B.
As sentiment and price start to pick up due to seasonality this should coincide with inflows picking up. $GBTC joins the long list of sell… https://t.co/oxrxe7M9Vv pic.twitter.com/3osd0OITBI
— James Van Straten (@jvs_btc) August 25, 2024
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading $64,163 price level. This resilience is all the more striking when one grasps the fact that the world's biggest cryptocurrency has had to grapple with a selling pressure of around 1.2 million BTC since the start of the year.
What's more, almost all of the bearish influences on Bitcoin are now waning. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF has lost half of its holdings and no longer carries the heft to single-handedly dictate the cryptocurrency's near-term price trajectory.
The coordinated liquidations from the German and the US governments have failed to move the needle on Bitcoin's medium-term bullish thesis. Of course, as of the end of July, the US government still owned ~200,000 BTC. But, in what might turn out to be a seminal moment for the crypto sector in general and Bitcoin in particular, the former President Trump has promised to utilize this stash to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve should he again win the US Presidency in November.
Close to 75% of circulating #bitcoin have not moved in the past 6+ months!
Supply & Demand in our favor.
Keep #hodling pic.twitter.com/yfbhUAist2
— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) August 16, 2024
Finally, the Mt Gox creditors, who recently received BTC payments nearly a decade after the collapse of that crypto exchange, are remarkably still HODLing - a term that is used to describe the behavior of investors to hold on to their crypto assets in anticipation of future gains.
Number of Bitcoin held by U.S. 🇺🇸 Bitcoin ETFs👇$IBIT $FBTC $ARKB $BITB $GBTC $BTC $HODL $BRRR $BTCO pic.twitter.com/XycTdl0NpT
— HODL15Capital 🇺🇸 (@HODL15Capital) August 24, 2024
Of course, spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now represent the biggest bullish influence on Bitcoin's price trajectory, have played an important role in absorbing this combined selling pressure. Consider the fact that these ETFs now hold nearly 1 million BTC. What's more, the institutional adoption of Bitcoin via these spot ETFs is witnessing an accelerating trend.
Net flows for global Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive again, meaning demand has absorbed GBTC sales. Structural demand will keep on coming, and with slowing GBTC outflows, net flows to pick up soon. October (BTC strongest month) is on track for new highs. https://t.co/zj1Y8wdPmk pic.twitter.com/xxcOjAzQwH
— Charlie Morris (@AtlasPulse) August 25, 2024
When one views these factors in the context of October's approach, which has historically served as the strongest month for Bitcoin, the conclusion is simple: all-time highs are much more likely in the coming weeks than further weakness.
Finally, we note that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, noted in a recent speech that the "the time has come for policy to adjust," indicating a strong bias for the Fed to start cutting the benchmark interest rate in September. Since Bitcoin is highly sensitive to the global excess liquidity metric, this development will only add further strength to the cryptocurrency's tailwinds.
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