Global AI Server Shipment Forecasts See a Noticeable Decline Following Geopolitical Tensions & Tariff Uncertainty

Jul 7, 2025 at 04:54pm EDT

The AI server market is expected to see a decline in YoY growth forecasts, following the uncertainty from US export restrictions, and disruptions in supply chain from geopolitical tensions.

Microsoft, Meta & Google Are Continuing With Their AI Spending With Full Force, But There's a Short-term Slowdown

The AI bandwagon is moving around with full force around the globe, particularly in North America, where Big Tech is spending massive revenue on creating AI infrastructure. However, based on a report by TrendForce, the uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policies and the recent geopolitical tensions have revised the global AI shipment forecasts, and have now seen a decline, from 28% to 24.3%. While they are still expected to maintain double-digit growth, the decrease is mainly attributed to the supply chain disruptions with evolving trade polices and regional tensions.

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As far as Big Tech is concerned, TrendForce says that their CapEx towards AI development isn't slowing down anytime soon, as firms like Microsoft are deploying NVIDIA's new servers at a consistent rate. The Blackwell Ultra GB300 AI servers are more popular among the tech giants for now, but more importantly, NVIDIA has seen a widespread dominance over the AI server segment in the past few quarters. Microsoft also invested into creating an in-house AI chip, but it didn't manage to meet expectations, and the project is now delayed to 2026.

Similarly, firms like Google and Meta are also consistently deploying AI servers, with both firms focusing on their in-house ASICs. The firms are core NVIDIA customers, but they are said to be focusing on AMD's rack-scale solutions as well, which shows that the market wants diversity in the segment, but still, Team Green retains its lead by a considerable margin. However, the focus on homegrown AI chips is more than ever, with Google leading the space with their Tensor Processing Units (TPUs).

For now, tech giants' spending on AI infrastructure is not slowing down, and YoY forecasts show an uptrend on a larger scale, which tells us that the AI hype is up and running.

About the author: Muhammad Zuhair is a hardware and technology reporter for Wccftech, specializing in the semiconductor industry and the complex interplay between technology, manufacturing, and geopolitics. His coverage focuses on the corporate strategies and technological roadmaps of industry giants like TSMC, NVIDIA, Samsung, and Intel. Zuhair's expertise lies in deconstructing complex topics such as fabrication nodes (e.g., 2nm process), the economic impact of policies like the CHIPS Act, and the strategic development of AI infrastructure from NVIDIA, AMD and Intel.

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