Peeved by the relentless redemptions from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which are a direct function of the ETF's elevated fee structure, Bitcoin's bulls had been yearning for a so-called flippening event, where one of the other newly launched spot Bitcoin ETFs are able to surpass GBTC's coin holdings, thereby substantially decreasing the constantly bleeding ETF's dampening effect on Bitcoin's price.
✅ Ladies & Gentlemen!! The Bitcoin ETF flippening 👇@BlackRock 's Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT overtook @Grayscale 's $GBTC pic.twitter.com/EJI0aAPim9
— HODL15Capital 🇺🇸 (@HODL15Capital) May 29, 2024
Well, moments ago, the hoped for flippening event finally materialized. As of today, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF held 287,450 coins. In contrast, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF now holds 288,670 coins, rendering it the biggest spot Bitcoin ETF in the world.
Do note that at the time of its conversion to an ETF, GBTC held 620,000 BTC or over 3 percent of Bitcoin's circulating supply. Since then, however, courtesy of GBTC's 1.5 percent annual fee vs. just around 0.2 percent for most of its peers, the ETF has been losing its holdings to the other much more competitively priced investment vehicles.
The Bernstein report predicts that the total Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF market will grow to US$450 billion, and more than US$100 billion will flow into crypto ETFs in the next two years. The Bitcoin cycle high in 2025 will be US$150,000, and the target price by the end of this year…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) May 28, 2024
Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts now expect the spot Bitcoin ETFs to grow to a cumulative size of nearly half a trillion dollars. Consequently, the investment firm expects the world's largest cryptocurrency to reach the $90,000 price level by the end of 2024, and hit a cyclical high of $150,000 in 2025.
~25K BTC from Mt Gox has moved in the last hour, likely the beginning of distributions to creditors
i sent a note to GLXY clients & counterparties a couple weeks ago with estimated payout amounts
i personally expect most BTC gets hodl’d, but i can’t say the same for the BCH pic.twitter.com/0f0LWOqGtc
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) May 28, 2024
Despite these resoundingly bullish prognostications, Bitcoin bulls still have to contend with an emerging overhang - the Mt Gox distributions. For the benefit of those who might not be aware, the Mt Gox exchange had declared bankruptcy in 2014 after a devastating hack that resulted in a loss of around 850,000 BTC. In February 2023, some of the defunct exchange's largest creditors agreed to a Bitcoin-denominated compensation plan, which necessitates BTC transfers before the 31st of October, 2024. To prepare for these transfers, 25,000 BTC were moved a few hours back, spooking the wider crypto sphere.
I too expect most BTC to be held from the Mt Gox process. Furthermore, the estate process is professionally managed with a few big/early holders and institutions involved so market impact will be minimized. BTC ETFs likely absorb sales anyways. https://t.co/rZUAfs158q
— Gabor Gurbacs (@gaborgurbacs) May 28, 2024
Given the involvement of sophisticated institutions, many analysts expect Mt Gox repayment transactions to conclude in a manner that would minimize the impact on the wider market. This should allow the world's pre-eminent cryptocurrency to resume its inevitable march toward new cyclical highs without too much of an upheaval.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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