Apple's sales cadence benefitted enormously from its relatively attractive pricing regime that it chose to maintain until the tail-end of Q2, when the Cupertino-based tech giant finally gave in to the oncoming margin-related pressures by hiking prices of its Mac and iPad offerings.
Now, however, with the hype around the iPhone 17 series fizzling out, and the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro series expected to debut with material price hikes, a new research report has just found worrying evidence of Apple's slowing sales momentum.
A KeyBanc analyst now believes the consensus estimate for Apple's iPhone growth of 8 percent in 2027 is "too aggressive"
According to Counterpoint Research, the global smartphone industry receded by 11 percent year-over-year in Q2 2026. Even so, both Apple and Samsung were able to increase their market share, with the former going from a 17 percent market share in Q2 2025 to a 20 percent share in Q2 2026. In other words, around a fifth of every smartphone sale in Q2 pertained to an iPhone.
Now, Omdia has just come forward with a similar take. While noting that China's smartphone market shrank by 2 percent year-over-year in Q2 2026, Omdia analysts believe Apple ranked second in China after Huawei, having shipped 12.4 million units during the just-concluded quarter to capture a 19 percent market share, which constitutes an all-time high for Apple for a Q2.
While these figures are surprisingly stellar, especially given the broader industry dynamics, a fresh research report from KeyBanc is a point of consternation for Apple going forward.
Even though KeyBanc believes Apple's near-term expectations are reasonable, the investment bank sees "several risks: (1) slowing iPhone builds amid price increases, weak U.S. upgrade activity, and changing device subsidy models; (2) 2027 expectations for Mac, iPad, and Wearables that are likely to move lower; and (3) slower unit growth, which is likely to reduce growth in Apple’s user base and pressure Services."
Basically, KeyBanc now sees carriers pulling back on cellphone subsidies, which is expected to dampen iPhone upgrade activity. Of course, we've already seen T-Mobile eliminating its promo-type $800-per-line cellphone subsidy for existing customers.
According to KeyBanc, carrier subsidy retrenchment in the US means international markets will now need to carry more of the iPhone growth burden for Apple, which becomes more challenging in a rising price environment. Accordingly, KeyBanc asserts that the "consensus iPhone growth of 8% in 2027 is too aggressive."
What's more, a deceleration in Apple's iPhone sales cadence will lead to its Services growth decelerating to an annual rate of 7 percent, down from the current consensus growth estimate of 12 percent.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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