Apple has given Intel "a once-in-a-generation window to rebuild its foundry," even if the initial order flow is quite tentative in its nature, claims the famous Apple-focused analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo.
Around 80 percent of Apple's orders for Intel's 18A-P process reportedly consist of iPhone chips, "mirroring Apple's end-device sales mix"
As we noted last week, Apple has now reached a preliminary chip fabrication deal with Intel. While the specifics of this agreement are not known at this time, it is likely to resemble the one between Apple and TSMC, where the former designs custom chips based on ARM's intellectual property, while the latter fabricates them on its advanced node lines.
Under this tentative partnership, Apple is likely to leverage Intel's 18A-P process for the base M7 chips that are expected to ship in 2027. What's more, Apple is now expected to fabricate its 2028-launching A21 chip either on Intel's 18A-P process or the more advanced 14A one.
Do note that Apple has already procured PDK samples from Intel to evaluate its 18A-P process. In the same vein, GF Securities believes that Apple's upcoming ASIC - dubbed Baltra and expected to launch either in 2027 or 2028 - will also leverage Intel's EMIB packaging.
This brings us to the core of today's topic. TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has disclosed today that around 80 percent of Apple's current Intel orders deal with iPhone chips - A21 to be more precise. This suggests that just 20 percent of Apple's fabrication activities at Intel will deal with the base M7 chip, essentially "mirroring Apple's end-device sales mix."
The analyst also notes that Apple's wafer plans at Intel will evolve alongside the lifecycle of the 18A-P process: "small-scale testing in 2026, ramp in 2027, continued growth in 2028, and decline in 2029."
This view suggests that Apple will likely lean towards Intel's 18A-P process to fabricate the A21 chip in 2028, while manufacturing the A21 Pro at TSMC's fabs, especially as Kuo notes that the bulk of Apple's advanced-node orders will still remain with the Taiwan-based giant.
Of course, much depends on how soon Intel is able to ramp up the yields of its new process. According to Kuo, the chipmaker is currently aiming to stabilize 18A-P yields at between 50 and 60 percent in 2027.
As for Apple's rationale in going back to Intel, Ming-Chi Kuo notes that the iPhone manufacturer had begun negotiating with Intel even before TSMC's advanced node constraints came to the fore, suggesting an innate desire on the part of Apple to hedge its bets.
Essentially, Apple realized that TSMC would continue to allocate an increasing share of its resources towards AI and HPC workloads, making it an imperative for Apple to find a viable alternative while its bargaining power remained high.
For Intel, Apple's bet represents "a once-in-a-generation window to rebuild its foundry," dampened by the Cupertino-based tech giant's notoriously exacting standard, of course.
About the author: Writing is my one incontrovertible passion. Over the past six years, he has authored over 2,200 distinct articles on financial and tech-related topics, spanning nearly 1 million words. And he has been a member of Wcctech mobile team since 2025. As an alumnus of the University of Toronto, Rotman Commerce Program, I bring nuance, in-depth knowledge, and a unique perspective to every topic that I cover. When I'm not writing, I'm traveling the world, exploring hidden confectionaries and restaurants as an aspiring food connoisseur.
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