A few short years ago, and perhaps even more recently than that, it felt like Fortnite would be around as long as video games are available to be played, and nothing would ever be able to truly topple Epic Games while it has the biggest video game on the planet in its portfolio.
It's likely that there are a lot of people who still feel that way, but after Epic's recent mass layoff of over 1,000 developers caused by a downturn in Fortnite engagement, among other issues, sentiments that the free-to-play battle royale monster is immortal have taken a turn.
Which is the least you could say for analyst Joost van Dreunen, co-founder of one of the industry's top analytics firms before selling it to Nielsen, and now author of SuperJoost Playlist. In his latest newslestter, Dreunen dug into his thoughts on what's happening with Epic Games, and why he believes the company is in the middle of a collapse.
The short version is that games like Fortnite, which are touted as 'forever games,' simply aren't actually going to be around forever. "Forever games, it turns out, aren't," Druenen writes. He compares it to Roblox, which has the advantage of letting users create the content and, in turn, create culture, with millions of young players taking what they play in Roblox into other parts of their lives.
But even Roblox, Dreunen points out, is not financially stable and is vulnerable to collapsing if it can't find a way to profitability. Epic's decline, then, is a mixture of issues, all of which point to Fortnite, and Epic Games' decline as an inevitable event.
The three issues Dreunen identifies are "the encroaching, disproportionate power wielded by platform holders," who have been able to increase their profits a whopping 191% between 2015 and 2025, while game publishers have only seen a 98% increase in the same time period.
This is exactly what Epic has been fighting against in its lawsuits aimed at Apple and Google, which resulted in varying levels of success, and cost Epic millions in legal fees, not to mention the profit Epic missed out on while Fortnite had been unavailable on major mobile platforms.
The second issue is "the rising cost structure of its domestic market," which is something that the whole industry is dealing with, as analyst firm Circana pointed out at Summer Game Fest 2025. Circana's surveys of Americans at the time found that a majority (69%) felt that tariffs would result in higher costs, and 30% of those surveyed said they would spend less on video games and entertainment as a result of the rising cost of essentials like food and shelter.
A year later, as Dreunen points out, in 2025 the Federal Reserve Bank of New York saw US consumers and companies bear "nearly 90%" of the costs brought on by tariffs. Add to that the price of Xbox, PlayStation, and, according to recent reports, Nintendo consoles all going up in the US, and the result is almost surely going to be a drop in profits across the industry, including to giants like Fortnite and Epic Games.
The last factor Dreunen points to is that while the US, which has borne the majority of the layoffs impacting the video game industry in the last few years, declines, the industry is on the rise on the other side of the ocean, where "a new generation" of companies across Europe and Asia are seeing much more investment than companies in the US.
Part of that, according to Dreunen, is also how these companies are embracing new technologies, like Generative AI (GenAI) more than companies in the West. Part of that comes from what he identifies as cultural differences, though the jury is still out on whether GenAI tech will land a significant place in the game development pipeline across the industry, especially as there are still plenty of developers who simply don't believe it has a place at all.
All that said, Dreunen is not to be ignored as an analyst who has an incredibly strong reputation and has seen the industry go through incredible changes over the years. He's worth paying attention to, and it's difficult to disagree with the current state of Epic Games and Fortnite.
"Empires don't collapse all at once," he writes. "They hollow out, slowly, until one day the walls come down and everyone acts surprised. We are currently somewhere in the middle of that process."
About the author: David has been writing about videogames, technology, and culture since 2020, with a focus on reporting daily news across multiple publications, including GameDaily.Biz, GameSkinny, and PlayStation Universe before joining Wccftech in 2025. David started contributing as Canada/US reporter for Wccftech's gaming section in 2025. Besides being up-to-date on the industry's movements, he loves interviewing developers, reviewing games, and writing intricate essays about the symbolism and layered meanings to be found in rich narratives as he's done for publications like GamesIndustry.Biz, LostInCult, and others. Outside of games he loves movies, music, theatre, his hometown, and his family, though not necessarily in that order.
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