We already know that Apple's new iPhone 17 lineup has been an apparent hit, with the exception of the iPhone Air. The momentum imbued by the new iPhones, however, might well be sufficient to carry Apple past Samsung to clinch the title of the world's largest smartphone manufacturer by sales volume.
Counterpoint Research: Apple is projected to end 2025 with a higher overall smartphone sales volume relative to Samsung's
Counterpoint authored two previous reports in November in quick succession to one another. The first report showed that Apple's share of the $600+ smartphone market at T-Mobile grew by 8 points between September 2022 and September 2025 to reach 80 percent.
The second report showed that Apple's iPhones constituted a quarter of all smartphones sold in China during October – a milestone that Apple managed to hit only once before, back in 2022.
The report also noted that smartphone sales in China rose by 8 percent year-over-year in October, largely driven by a 37 percent year-over-year surge in the sale of Apple's iPhones, with 80 percent of those sales concentrated in the new iPhone 17 lineup.
Interestingly, that report had eschewed any mention of the iPhone Air, raising doubts over the ultra-slim iPhone's sales momentum in the world's largest smartphone market.
Now, Counterpoint Research is back with a third smartphone-centric report in November, projecting that Samsung will end 2025 with a fairly respectable 4.6 percent year-over-year growth in smartphone shipments.
However, Apple is likely to end the ongoing year with a 10 percent year-over-year growth in iPhone shipments, which would take its share of the global smartphone market to 19.4 percent - the highest among global smartphone OEMs. Consequently, for the first time in over a decade, Apple will clinch the proverbial crown for the global smartphone market, leaving Samsung as the runner-up.
As far as hard numbers are concerned, do note that Apple sold 231.8 million iPhones in 2024. Therefore, a 10 percent increase from this baseline means that Apple will have shipped a whopping 254.98 million iPhones by the end of 2025.
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