NVIDIA GB200 platforms featuring LPDDR memory would further put stress upon the DRAM segment as AI demand swells.
NVIDIA's Pivot From DDR5 to LPDDR Memory For AI Servers Puts Massive Pressure On PC/Mobile Supply Chains
Memory modules have now entered the 'era of shortages', driven by massive DRAM demand the industry has been witnessing for the past few months, and initially, it was estimated that the impact wouldn't be too much considering that DRAM capacity was in the phase of expansion; however, it appears that the datacenter buildout has reached new levels. And more importantly, companies like NVIDIA are eying the LPDDR memory supply for AI servers, creating further constraints for the consumer market.
The bigger risk on the horizon is with advanced memory as NVIDIA’s recent pivot to LPDDR means it is a customer on the scale of a major smartphone maker — a seismic shift for the supply chain which can’t easily absorb this scale of demand.
- Counterpoint
In contrast to Counterpoint's report, it is worth noting that NVIDIA's move to LPDDR5 memory is not a recent development. The company has been featuring up to 496 GB of LPDDR5X memory on its Blackwell GB200 platform since it launched 18 months back, and others, such as Intel, are also planning to leverage LPDDR DRAM for its upcoming Crescent Island GPUs designed for inference workloads. Upcoming platforms such as Vera Rubin would utilize even more LPDDR memory, but that was always the plan.
As far as memory prices are concerned, it is reported that they are expected to rise by up to 50% within just a few quarters, adding on to the already-estimated 50% YoY increase, which means that within a span of a few months, we are looking at a gigantic 100% rise. One of the main reasons why NVIDIA intends to switch to LPDDR memory over the traditional DDR5 solutions is that it is a more power-efficient platform, and at the same time, features effective "error correction" mechanisms. While for the AI industry, this is an optimistic move, for consumers, this is another trouble.
LPDDR5 and higher-level models have seen widespread adoption in the PC and mobile supply chains, particularly in modern-day smartphones. And more importantly, the capacity that NVIDIA requires is significantly higher compared to what memory suppliers can offer to the company, which means that the supply chain will remain in a 'highly constrained' scenario for months to come. With this, it would not be incorrect to say that HBM, DDR, LPDDR, GDDR, and even RDIMM modules will be in short supply, affecting every user out there.
We hope that the memory markets will rapidly adjust to the evolving supply chain situation, but from the looks of it, it will take several quarters before things return to normal.
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