75%
Probable
Half-Life 3 fans were not nearly sated by the hardware announcements Valve made last week (the Steam Machine, Steam Frame, and Steam Controller, all due sometime early next year). They believed before those announcements and their faith was renewed when several insiders pointed to the game's existence and potential imminent launch. Now, though, more sources have added fuel to the hype, just as the franchise celebrates the 27th anniversary since the release of the original Half-Life.
- Insider Nate the Hate, who has a solid track record, acknowledged that his sources also spoke about Half-Life 3. However, he received some conflicting information on the announcement timing; one of the things he heard was that it was going to happen at noon yesterday, which obviously wasn't the case.
- Shpeshal_Nick, who has a slightly more checkered track record, wrote on X: Last week I got a DM that Valve was showing off hardware “this week” (last week) and software “next week” (this week). This software was allegedly Half-Life 3.
- The Verge journalist Sean Hollister was among those invited to Valve's headquarters for the aforementioned hardware announcements. In a brief story published on the website, he noted that the developer's halls were strangely filled with security guards, which never happened on his previous visits. The story also included a picture of a Steam Machine visually customized with several memes, including a title that starts with H and is 'censored'. Fans took it as a tease from Valve that soon, it might not be censored anymore, at long last.
Traces of a game project codenamed HLX were discovered through extensive data mining and references across Source 2 engine updates. Tyler McVicker alleged as early as this past May that the project believed to be Half-Life 3 was almost at the end of its development.
Needless to say, an announcement on the anniversary of the debut installment in the franchise would make a lot of sense. Besides, Valve unveiled its upcoming hardware exactly a week ago, so if they did want to space their news evenly, today would be the day for the next announcement.
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